America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
One notable aspect of the financial markets is the continuing sharp drop in crude oil prices. Other commodities have also been under selling pressure. I view these declines, as well as other aspects of the overall financial system, to be manifestations of “deflationary pressures,” of which I have extensively written. For reference purposes, here is …
Doug Short had a blog post of December 30, 2014 (“Consumer Confidence ‘Rebounded Modestly’ In December“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November, updated on December 23, 2014. This value is 242,275 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of December 19, 2014, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2014“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2014:Q3). The last value (as of December 11, 2014) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 11, 2014 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth ‘dipped slightly’ in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
Doug Short had a notable post on December 8, 2014 titled “Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita – A Better Look at the Long-Term Trend.” Below is a chart depicting the long-term trend of light vehicle sales per capita: It is interesting to compare the chart above to that below, which is aggregate light vehicle sales …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his December 5, 2014 post titled “Real Median Household Income Declined .59% in October” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …