America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of April 28, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate at .5%, Worse Than Mainstream Forecasts” post of April 28, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 28, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2016, updated on April 26, 2016. This value is $230,651 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 82 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of April 7, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
On April 5, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Edges Up to -10 in March.” Notable excerpts include: Americans were slightly more confident in the economy in March than they were in February; however, their confidence has not drastically changed in the past nine months. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index …
Doug Short had a blog post of April 1, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: March Final Slightly Better Than Forecast“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …