America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Doug Short had a blog post of January 31, 2017 (“Consumer Confidence Retreated in January“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2016, updated on January 27, 2017. This value is $227,018 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of January 27, 2017. As one can see, one of the three measures is at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.9%, Worse Than Forecast ” post of January 27, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 27, 2017: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through January 20, 2017) from Doug Short’s blog …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 91 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On January 3, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “Ahead of Election, Americans’ Confidence in Economy Steady.” Notable excerpts include: Americans ended 2016 with higher confidence in the U.S. economy than they have expressed at any other point since 2008. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged +9 in December, up eight points from November. also: …