America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 4Q 2016“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2016:Q4). The last value (as of the March 9, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of March 9, 2017 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q4.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of March 6, 2017, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
Doug Short had a blog post of February 28, 2017 (“Consumer Confidence Up in February“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through January 2017, updated on February 27, 2017. This value is $230,354 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2017 management call transcript (pdf) dated February 21, 2017. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q4 results and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts …
On February 7, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Hit New High in January.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy remained strong in January. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +11, the highest monthly average in Gallup’s nine-year trend. However, the index has been slightly lower so …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his February 2, 2017 post titled “Real Median Household Income: No Growth in 2016” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as …