America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the December 19 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Buckle Up!” Included in the story, 10 “stock-market strategists and investment managers” give various forecasts including 2012 S&P500 profits, 2012 S&P500 year-end price targets, 2012 & 2013 GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 27: The mean prediction of …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief third update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative …
The December 8, 2011 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2011 1267.7 June 29, 2012 1322.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1395 Dec. 31, 2013 1480 These figures represent the median value across the 35 forecasters on …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief second update (the first being on November 18 titled “Building Financial Danger – An Update“) to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. There are …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – It …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
This post is an update to recent posts that began on October 6 (“A Chart Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility“) on stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following chart to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent outsized volatility in the stock market. This chart …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (their latest estimates are as of November 22), their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $97.48/share -From a “top down” perspective, …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief update to that post. My overall analysis continues to indicate that there is an elevated and growing level of danger. Many prominent parties seem to be fixated on the European financial problems, …
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Turmoil Spreads in Europe.” The subtitle is “Bond Market Selloff Hits Nations Seen as Healthy, Raising Specter of Contagion.” An excerpt: Europe’s debt troubles on Tuesday spilled over to top-rated nations that had been largely untouched by the crisis—including Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and France—in an …