America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
With Gold now below $1000, I would like to call attention to a post of September 4 titled “Gold and Implications.” Here is the link: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/09/04/gold-and-implications/ I think that Gold below $1000, after having failed to hold above this level, is very significant. Also significant is the number of people who have been predicting a …
Please note – some might find this post disturbing In this post I will summarize my thoughts on the markets, particularly the stock market. As has been the case since the Economic Crisis began, any stock market weakness will most likely be mirrored in a variety of other markets as well, such as commodities, credit, etc. …
For this last post of this blog series, I will comment on the VIX. As seen below, if one looks casually at the VIX daily chart, there doesn’t seem to be much to be concerned about: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com However, I would like to make a couple of observations. First, as one can …
The price action in the S&P500 since the March low at ~666 has struck me as being very “impulsive.” This is certainly a cause for concern. Also, there certainly has not been any significant “wall of worry” that one would expect given the fundamentals. The charts seen in this post are from Maurice Walker, http://thechartpatterntrader.com. First, a …
Moving on to the stock market… The first chart is the NYSE Summation Index. I have put in the S&P500 as an overlay in green, with the NYSE Summation Index’s MACD at the bottom of the chart. What I find interesting here is the negative MACD divergence as indicated on the chart, in blue: Chart …
I have included two charts of the Ten-Year Treasury yields below – one daily and one monthly. The monthly is provided for a longer-term perspective. I would like to address the daily chart. It seems odd that in an environment in which inflation is (purportedly) a growing concern the economy is supposedly recovering faster than …
The next few posts will contain some of my thoughts on the markets from a Technical Analysis perspective. Typically I don’t comment about my observations from a technical perspective. However, I believe we are at a very critical juncture here in the markets. I am not aware of anyone discussing imminent peril in the markets right now, …
The strong price action of gold lately has been interesting. As seen in the two-year daily price chart below, the $1000 level has been a pivotal area: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com For a variety of reasons I am closely watching whether this $1000 price level will be surpassed. I am under the impression, due to …
I recently came across an interesting chart titled “Relationship Of Inflation and Price/Earnings Ratios (1900-2008).” It is from Crestmont Research and can be found at this link: http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%20Inflation%20&%20PE.pdf It shows the effect of inflation and deflation (as defined by the CPI) on the P/E Ratio. I think that it is worth looking at for a variety …
One of the more prevalent themes mentioned has been the possibility, or probability, of hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is often mentioned due to the degree of “money pumping” and other intervention measures that have occurred in the last two years to combat this period of economic weakness. However, despite all of the predictions of hyperinflation, there appears to …