America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I recently saw an ad for “Bubble Investing” and thought it was notable. It used to be that the mere idea of an asset bubble led to concern. Now, it appears as if asset bubbles are seen by many as more of an opportunity than a threat. Of course, investing in bubbles can be profitable. …
As seen in the chart below, the 50 day moving average (as seen in blue) for the VIX is now trending higher. This is the first time since March 2009 in which it has done so in a significant manner: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Of course, there are many different ways to measure volatility. Other …
I find last Thursday’s stock market plunge to be highly notable on several fronts. The temptation is to treat the event as a “fluke” or “one off” event that is inconsequential; it is especially tempting to do so when most of the damage was quickly reversed and, as of this writing, stock indices are again …
For the last few quarters, I have been commenting upon the general lack of revenue growth in corporate results. I have focused on a variety of diversified manufacturers and distributors, all of them well-respected S&P500 firms. My last comment on this issue was on January 29. For the recently released 1Q2010 financial results, it …
Over the last few months a notable divergence has occurred between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. Two charts illustrate this divergence. The first shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The second chart shows a chart of FXI, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index. This chart …
The Wall Street Journal has recently had two more articles concerning alleged Ponzi schemes. The first is titled “Our Ponzi Nation: Florida Entrepreneur Hit With Charges.” The second is titled “Alleged Ponzi In Colorado Has Shades of Madoff Affair.” Also, there was an interesting story from April 17 titled “Report Says SEC Missed Many Shots …
On April 23, chartoftheday.com had an interesting chart, shown below, that compares the median home price vs. the price of Gold: Traditionally, houses have been viewed as “hard assets.” However, as one can see above, their recent (from a long-term historical perspective) price pattern seems more geared to that of a “paper asset” – i.e. …
Yesterday William C. Dudley, President and CEO of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, gave a speech titled “Asset Bubbles and the Implications for Central Bank Policy.” Although there are many parts of this speech with which I disagree, I found this speech noteworthy and interesting. I could make exhaustive comments about many parts …
As seen on the following 10-year daily chart, the 10-Year Treasury Yield has been rising as of late: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com There is very little general expectation for a significant rise in interest rates. In fact, the average economist forecast (as seen for the March 2010 Wall Street Journal Economist Survey) for the 10-Year …
Recent statistics indicate that the stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP appears to again be over 100%. This is an elevated level from a historical perspective. I’ve written of this metric before in an article titled “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” I feel that for many reasons this is an important …