America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On July 8, 2020 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The CFO …
On July 2, 2020, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 44, up from 34 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this July 2, 2020 Press Release include: CEOs …
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through June 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 22, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of 2.61: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 11, 2020 update (reflecting data through June 5, 2020) is -.3833. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 11, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 28, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 22, 2020) is .1198. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …