America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Benefits of Extra Unemployment Aid Outweigh Work Disincentive.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 6, 2020 update (reflecting data through July 31, 2020) is -.2931. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 8, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 23, 2020 update (reflecting data through July 17, 2020) is -.1726. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of 4.11: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 9, 2020 update (reflecting data through July 3, 2020) is .1588. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …