The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
In the latest survey, 70% of economists said they expect the recovery to resemble a “swoosh” shape similar to the Nike logo, with a large drop followed by a gradual recovery. That was broadly unchanged from the two previous monthly surveys and a contrast to the predictions of Trump administration officials, who have predicted a swift, V-shaped recovery.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%. For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 73.54%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7, 2020.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2020: -5.64%
full-year 2021: 4.70%
full-year 2022: 3.22%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2020: 9.07%
December 2021: 6.75%
December 2022: 5.61%
December 2023: 4.93%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: .86%
December 2021: 1.25%
December 2022: 1.68%
CPI:
December 2020: .52%
December 2021: 1.91%
December 2022: 2.06%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $40.84
for 12/31/2021: $46.73
for 12/31/2022: $50.86
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3165.78 as this post is written