The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
In the latest survey, 70% of economists said they expect the recovery to resemble a “swoosh” shape similar to the Nike logo, with a large drop followed by a gradual recovery. That was broadly unchanged from the two previous monthly surveys and a contrast to the predictions of Trump administration officials, who have predicted a swift, V-shaped recovery.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%. For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 73.54%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7, 2020.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2020: -5.64%
full-year 2021: 4.70%
full-year 2022: 3.22%
December 2020: 9.07%
December 2021: 6.75%
December 2022: 5.61%
December 2023: 4.93%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: .86%
December 2021: 1.25%
December 2022: 1.68%
December 2020: .52%
December 2021: 1.91%
December 2022: 2.06%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $40.84
for 12/31/2021: $46.73
for 12/31/2022: $50.86
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3165.78 as this post is written