The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Benefits of Extra Unemployment Aid Outweigh Work Disincentive.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
Economists surveyed this month saw the economy rebounding 18.3% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, following the 32.9% drop in the second quarter. That was higher than their July forecast of a 15.2% third-quarter bounceback. But economists trimmed their forecasts for the following four quarters, suggesting they see a long recovery ahead.
Roughly 70% percent of economists surveyed said the recovery would look like a “Nike swoosh,” characterized by a sharp drop, followed by a gradual recovery.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 37.04%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%. For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 54.41%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2020: -5.33%
full-year 2021: 4.39%
full-year 2022: 3.37%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2020: 8.96%
December 2021: 6.63%
December 2022: 5.47%
December 2023: 4.88%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: .76%
December 2021: 1.17%
December 2022: 1.58%
CPI:
December 2020: .72%
December 2021: 2.03%
December 2022: 2.08%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $42.96
for 12/31/2021: $47.80
for 12/31/2022: $51.32
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3373.43 as this post is written