America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 6, 2022, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2022.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 27, 2022 update (reflecting data through January 21, 2022) is -.5956: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 24, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2022. The headline is “Omicron, Inflation Drive Down U.S. Growth Outlook.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. Two excerpts: The combination of …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 13, 2022 update (reflecting data through January 7, 2022) is -.8245: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 30, 2021 update (reflecting data through December 24, 2021) is -.6940: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through December 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
On December 9, 2021, The Conference Board released the Q4 2021 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 65, down from the previous reading of 67. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this December 9, 2021 Press Release include: Current …