The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The January 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 24, 2022:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 24, 2022;
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .33:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 24, 2022;
The ADS Index as of January 20, 2022, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through January 15, 2022, with last value -.442273:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the January 21, 2022 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in December” the LEI was at 120.8 in December, the CEI was at 107.4 in December, and the LAG was at 109.4 in December.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures—as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hikes—may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent—well above the pre-pandemic trend growth.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of January 21, 2022:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4315.53 as this post is written