America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 10, 2022. The headline is “Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. Two excerpts: Economists see a growing …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 7, 2022 update (reflecting data through April 1, 2022) is -1.2777: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through March 2022. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
On March 30, 2022 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Optimism about the …
On March 21, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this March 21, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index: Slight Dip Amid Global Uncertainty; CEOs Responding to Historically High Demand with Strong Hiring, Investment Plans“: Business …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 24, 2022 update (reflecting data through March 18, 2022) is -1.0293: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 21, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .51: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 10, 2022 update (reflecting data through March 4, 2022) is -.2709: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …