The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 10, 2022. The headline is “Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago.
Economists slashed their forecast for growth this year. On average they see inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, down a full percentage point from the average forecast six months ago, though still higher than the 2.2% average annual growth rate in the decade before the pandemic.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 28%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 75%. For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 17.74%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted April 1 – April 5. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2022: 2.57%
full-year 2023: 2.18%
full-year 2024: 2.06%
December 2022: 3.44%
December 2023: 3.56%
December 2024: 3.74%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2022: 2.73%
December 2023: 2.85%
December 2024: 2.93%
December 2022: 5.52%
December 2023: 2.86%
December 2024: 2.35%
full-year 2022: 4.33%
full-year 2023: 2.83%
full-year 2024: 2.28%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4488.28 as this post is written