The November 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 9, 2012.  The headline is “Storm Expected to Trim Growth, not Spending.”

An excerpt:

On average, the economists see a small chance of recession over the next 12 months—at about 1-in-5, basically unchanged over the past five months. But most respondents still think that threats such as the fiscal cliff have the economy more likely to fall short of expectations than exceed them.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2012:  1.8%

full-year 2013:  2.4%

full-year 2014:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2012: 7.9%

December 2013: 7.5%

December 2014:  7.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2012: 1.78%

December 2013: 2.47%

December 2014:  3.06%


December 2012:  2.1%

December 2013:  2.2%

December 2014:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2012: $88.72

for 12/31/2013: $92.73

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1380.03 as this post is written