America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On January 9, 2017 I wrote a post (“Low Interest Rates And The Formation Of Asset Bubbles“) that mentioned the “Taylor Rule.” As discussed in that post – and for other reasons – the level of the Fed Funds rate – and whether its level is appropriate – has vast importance and far-reaching consequences with …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of August 17, 2017, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of August 17, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 10, 2017: Year 2017 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $127.14/share …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2018 management call transcript (pdf) dated August 17, 2017. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q2 results and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 10, 2017 update (reflecting data through August 4, 2017) is -1.582. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
I have written extensively about U.S. interest rates and their importance. Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy. My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag. From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” category. …
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2017 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 11, 2017. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2017: 2.1% full-year 2018: 2.4% full-year 2019: …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …