America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 27, 2017 update (reflecting data through July 21, 2017) is -1.595. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 5, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 5, 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that …
On August 1, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “Americans’ Confidence in Economy Positive but Near 2017 Low.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ confidence in the economy was steady last month, with Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaging +4 in July. This score is nearly identical to the 2017 low of +3 registered in May and June. Still, …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s August 1, 2017) close, which had a closing value of 10.09. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
For reference purposes, below is a chart of the S&P500 and VIX from 2003 through Monday’s (July 31, 2017) close. The closing price for the S&P500 was 2470.30 and the VIX had a closing value of 10.26. Price labels are also shown: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation …