America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 22, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .49: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
For reference purposes, below is a 1-year chart of the S&P500 and VIX through Thursday’s (May 18, 2017) close. The closing price for the S&P500 was 2365.72 and the VIX had a closing value of 14.66. Price labels as well as moving averages are also shown: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q1 2018 management call transcript (pdf) dated May 18, 2017. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q1 results and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 11, 2017 update (reflecting data through May 5, 2017) is -1.451. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 15, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of May 4, 2017: Year 2017 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $129.71/share …
The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2017 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 12, 2017. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2017: 2.1% full-year 2018: 2.5% full-year 2019: …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of May 11, 2017, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …