Monthly Archives: April 2014

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 30, 2014

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures.

All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2014, and were last updated as of April 30, 2014.  As one can see, two of the three measures are at all-time lows for the periods depicted:

Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.39 :

MZM monetary velocity

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 30, 2014:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV

Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 6.323 :

M1 monetary velocity

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 30, 2014:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V

Velocity of M2 Money Stock, current value = 1.545 :

M2 monetary velocity

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 30, 2014:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

 

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1880.82 as this post is written

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of April 29, 2014

Doug Short had a blog post of April 29, 2014 (“Consumer Confidence Falls Slightly in April“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy.  Of course, the continuing subdued absolute levels of these two surveys is disconcerting.

Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be very problematical, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this blog.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1878.33 as this post is written

The S&P500 Vs. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index – April 29, 2014

Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets.

The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, since 2006:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 vs. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite

It is notable that the Shanghai Composite led the SPX (S&P500) significantly in late ’08 – early ’09, yet it has been (generally) declining since that time.

I continue to find this divergence between the S&P500 and Shanghai Composite to be notable and disconcerting, on an “all things considered” basis.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1869.43 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – April 25, 2014 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these twelve sources :

Other past notable year 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:

Also, subsequent to May 2012:

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Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of April 25, 2014 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the April 25 release, indicating data through April 18, 2014.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

Dshort 4-25-14 - ECRI-WLI-YoY

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1864.45 as this post is written

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – April 24, 2014 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on April 24, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to April 18, 2014, on a weekly basis.  The April 18, 2014 value is -1.108:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

STLFSI

Here is the STLFSI chart from a 1-year perspective:

STLFSI 1-year

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 24, 2014:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/STLFSI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1881.20 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2014

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, below are charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March, last updated on April 24, 2014.  This value is 234,839 ($ Millions) :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

durable goods new orders

Here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:

durable goods new orders percent change from year ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER] ; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau ; accessed April 24, 2014;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1877.44 as this post is written

Current Economic Situation

With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 35 “Building Financial Danger” posts.

My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near the bottom of every blog post since August 15, 2010.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1873.54 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of April 17, 2014:

from page 19:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks) 

S&P500 earnings estimates

from page 20:

Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates

S&P500 earnings 2001-2015

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1879.55 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2014, 2015, And 2016

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of April 21, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:

Year 2014 estimate:

$118.66/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$132.31/share

Year 2016 estimate:

$146.13/share

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1871.89 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of April 17, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 17, 2014:

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $120.00/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $123.36/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $117.10/share

Year 2015 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $137.26/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of N/A

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1871.89 as this post is written