America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of April 21, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of April 17, 2014 (incorporating data through …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 17, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to April 11, …
Each week I have been posting two charts of the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 58 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Growth Spurt Delayed, Not Derailed.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Three excerpts I found notable: …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of April 10 …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2014 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven.” One area of the report is figure 1.14 on page 14. While I do not agree with the current readings of the three measures presented – Probability of Recession, Probability of Deflation, and the …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 10, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to April 4, …