America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on September 5, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to August 30, …
In the September 2 edition of Barron’s, the cover story was titled “Fall Forecast: Sunny” Included in the story, 10 strategists give various forecasts including 2013 and 2014 S&P500 EPS, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 25: Barron’s recently checked in with 10 Street seers, whose consensus …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On September 3, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Lingers at Lower Level in August.” The subtitle is “Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index registers -13, similar to -12 in July.” Notable excerpts include: Americans remained more negative than positive last month about economic conditions in the U.S. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index averaged -13 …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …