America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
GDP is an economic measure that I rarely mention in this blog, as I believe that, for a variety of reasons, it is a complex indicator that has various computational, structural and theoretical limitations, and as such should be used with caution. However, given its prominence (or perhaps dominance) in policy making and near-ubiquity in …
On September 4, Gallup released the poll results titled “Economic Confidence in August Ties 2012 Low.” The subtitle is “U.S. economic outlook lowest since December 2011; still better than year ago.” Two of the most notable excerpts: The Gallup Economic Confidence Index registered -27 in August, matching the prior monthly low for the year, recorded in …
In the September 3 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Tough as Teflon.” Included in the story, 10 market strategists give various forecasts including 2012 & 2013 S&P500 profits, 2012 S&P500 year-end price targets, 2012 & 2013 GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 22: With 2012 two-thirds done, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On Friday (August 31) Ben Bernanke gave a speech at Jackson Hole titled “Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis.” I do not agree with various comments in the speech. However, here are a few excerpts that I found most noteworthy: These actions–along with a host of interventions by other policymakers in the United …