America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On November 6 Doug Short posted an interesting chart on his site. This chart shows the post-peak performances, in percentage terms, of four bear markets, as shown. As one can see, the current trajectory of the S&P500 (post-2007 peak) is quite distinct from that of the post-2000 Nasdaq, post-1989 Nikkei, and post-1929 Dow Jones Industrials: …
For the last few quarters, I have been commenting upon revenue growth in corporate results. I have focused on a variety of diversified manufacturers and distributors, all of them well-respected S&P500 firms. Prior posts on this issue are found at this link. For the recently released 3Q 2010 financial results, there generally has been …
On Saturday (November 6) Ben Bernanke took part in a panel discussion. This was part of The Federal Reserve conference “A Return to Jekyll Island: The Origins, History, and Future of the Federal Reserve.” I found these comments, pertaining to QE2, to be highly notable: Ben Bernanke: “There is not really, in my mind, as …
On Sunday, President Obama was interviewed on “60 Minutes.” Here are four excerpts from the transcript that I found especially noteworthy. I may comment upon them in the future as I find them, in various ways, to be (at least) somewhat provocative: – President Obama: “And so, you know, the playing field now is a …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction. However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective …
Ben Bernanke wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post yesterday titled, “What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability.” I could write very extensively about this piece as it is highly notable on several fronts. For now, I will limit my comments. My analysis indicates that the risks of QE …
Barron’s came out with its “Fall 2010 Big Money Poll” on November 1. There are a variety of statistics and poll results in it that I found interesting. Of special note is the S&P500 2011 profit consensus of respondents, at $91.11. There seems to be a growing overall consensus that S&P500 Operating Earnings will be …
The results of yesterday’s elections further solidify the trend of increasing political volatility. Survey results indicate that much of this volatility has been driven by widespread dissatisfaction concerning the economic situation. While this volatility has been recognized, many of its implications have lacked recognition. On January 25, 2010 I wrote a post titled “Political Volatility.” …
There has been an immense amount of material written about additional Quantitative Easing (QE2). Here are some of the works that I have found among the most interesting (although I don’t necessarily agree with what is being said): “Guidelines for Global Economic Policymaking,” (pdf) Gregory Hess, Shadow Open Market Committee, October 12, 2010 Investment Outlook, …
On April 21 I wrote a post titled “Recession Measures – Two Charts.” That post referenced an April 12 CalculatedRisk blog post titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts. Here are those charts, updated in his October 29 post. The charts are …