America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On May 3, 2010 I wrote a post concerning the notable divergence that had occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. Since that May post, the divergence has grown. The chart below illustrate this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at the September 17 and May 30 posts) Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.79/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
Today’s Barron’s has a cover story titled “Outlook 2011.” Among the average forecasts of the 10 respondents (strategists and investment managers) was the following: A year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1373.25 $92.90 S&P500 EPS for 2011 $100.83 S&P500 EPS for 2012 (an average from 6 respondents) 3.2% GDP growth for 2011 In a separate story …
The December 9, 2010 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2010 1200 June 30, 2011 1250 Dec. 30, 2011 1298.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1350 These figures represent the median value across the 33 forecasters on the …
On November 6 Doug Short posted an interesting chart on his site. This chart shows the post-peak performances, in percentage terms, of four bear markets, as shown. As one can see, the current trajectory of the S&P500 (post-2007 peak) is quite distinct from that of the post-2000 Nasdaq, post-1989 Nikkei, and post-1929 Dow Jones Industrials: …
Barron’s came out with its “Fall 2010 Big Money Poll” on November 1. There are a variety of statistics and poll results in it that I found interesting. Of special note is the S&P500 2011 profit consensus of respondents, at $91.11. There seems to be a growing overall consensus that S&P500 Operating Earnings will be …
The following commentary and chart is excerpted from the October 14, 2010 ContraryInvestor.com commentary. I find it interesting in a variety of different ways, and it raises a lot of questions with regard to the stock market, consumer confidence, QE1, and QE2… _____ “We have not touched on consumer confidence for a good while, but …
(this is the fifth in a series of five posts concerning the markets) Lastly, a couple of charts showing the S&P500… First, one that shows the S&P500 on a weekly basis, LOG scale, since 2007. I continue to find this chart interesting for a variety of reasons. It shows that resistance has become support, as …
(this is the fourth in a series of five posts concerning the markets) Starting with my June 2 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in the post of October …
I am aware of no recent warnings by others of a possible stock market crash in the near term. In the past I have commented that I view a future crash as certain. Like that of 2008, such a crash would include not only equity markets but many others as well. Pinpoint timing of crashes …