America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
This post is an update to the post of October 6 (“A Chart Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility“) While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following chart to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent outsized volatility in the stock market. This chart depicts the S&P500 in 10 minute …
In my post of September 29 (“Near-Term Direction Of The Stock Market – Update“) I had reiterated my view that the S&P500 would fall below the August 9 low of 1101.54. It did fall below that 1101.54 level, reaching a bottom of 1074.77 on October 4. The question now becomes whether that 1074.77 was a …
The following chart depicts the S&P500 in 10 minute intervals from July 20 through yesterday’s close. As such, it encompasses the progression of the stock market since its July 25 daily high of 1344.32: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) The blue line is a 50-period moving average. What I find notable …
Since the S&P500 highs of early May and early July I have written a variety of posts warning of what I considered cautionary signs for the stock market. One of those posts was on August 29, titled “The Near Term Direction Of The Stock Market.” In that post I commented: Was that August 9 low …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – It …
Yesterday (September 19) The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Wall Street’s Optimism Fades.” The article contains a variety of forecasts and commentary regarding the stock market and earnings. Here are two excerpts of forecasts: Goldman Sachs last Wednesday ratcheted down its end-of-year prediction for the S&P 500 to 1250, from its previous forecast …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (as of September 2), their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $98.58/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of …
In the September 5 edition of Barron’s, the cover story was titled “Which Way Up?” Included in the story, 15 “buy- and sell-side strategists” give various forecasts including 2011 and 2012 S&P500 EPS, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 23, “The average of their expectations” for the …
There seems to be consensus that the stock market, as represented by the S&P500, “bottomed” during its August 9th low at 1101.54. Here is the daily 1-year chart of the S&P500 for reference: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – Was that August 9 low a “true bottom” – i.e. one that …
On June 29 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” I continue to believe that the “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator among (very) many that serves as a “red flag” as to …