America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The June 9, 2011 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2011 1340 Dec. 30, 2011 1380 June 29, 2012 1413.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1463.5 These figures represent the median value across the 35 forecasters on the …
In the October 27, 2010 blog post (“Market Overview – Part V: Stock Market”) I showed two charts of the S&P500. As we are now approaching various important technical levels of the S&P500, I have updated one of the charts, as seen below: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author click on chart to …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $98.06/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $94.89/share …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. Since that May post, the divergence has grown. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found on September 17, May 30, and December 30) Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $96.21/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
There are two other aspects I would like to highlight with regard to the stock market. First, per my last two posts, my analysis indicates the entire stock market is currently a bubble. Given that conclusion, as well as my opinion that there are various other asset bubbles in existence right now, I would …
(This post is made in conjunction with the last post, “The Stock Market Bubble – General Comments“) There are various aspects of the stock market that lead me to conclude that the stock market is experiencing a bubble. First, for reference purposes, here is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500 updated through February 28, …
In the February 11, 2011 post (“Stock Market Comment“) I mentioned, among other comments, that I believed the stock market, as a whole, is currently a bubble. I would like to elaborate upon my reasoning for such, especially since it is a view (admittedly) held by very few. What makes this stock market bubble particularly …
Starting with my June 2, 2010 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in subsequent posts, including that of October 13, 2010 “Comments On The Next Crash.” Although I continue …
On May 3, 2010 I wrote a post concerning the notable divergence that had occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. Since that May post, the divergence has grown. The chart below illustrate this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click …