America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of April 27, 2018. As one can see, two of the three measures are very near …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.3%” post of April 27, 2018, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2018 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 27, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2018, updated on April 26, 2018. This value is $254,947 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 19, 2018 update (reflecting data through April 13, 2018) is -.97. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 23, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .10: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 12, 2018 update (reflecting data through April 6, 2018) is -.896. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2018 “World Economic Outlook.” The subtitle is ”Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change.” One area of the report is Figure 1.22 on page 24. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 5, 2018 update (reflecting data through March 30, 2018) is -.919. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …