America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Doug Short post of April 5, 2018, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 29, 2018 update (reflecting data through March 23, 2018) is -.956. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 22, 2018 update (reflecting data through March 16, 2018) is -1.116. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 26, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .88: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2018, updated on March 23, 2018. This value is $247,718 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 15, 2018 update (reflecting data through March 9, 2018) is -1.108. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 8, 2018 update (reflecting data through March 2, 2018) is -1.112. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …