Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The April 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 23, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .10:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 23, 2018;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .27:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 23, 2018;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of April 20, 2018 (incorporating data through April 13, 2018) the WLI was at 148.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.2%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of April 20, 2018:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 14, 2018:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the April 19, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in March” (pdf) the LEI was at 109.0, the CEI was at 103.4, and the LAG was 104.5 in March.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI increased in March, and while the monthly gain is slower than in previous months, its six-month growth rate increased further and points to continued solid growth in the U.S. economy for the rest of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The strengths among the components of the leading index have been very widespread over the last six months. However, labor market components made negative contributions in March and bear watching in the near future.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of April 19, 2018:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2679.84 as this post is written