ECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary

The recent steep fall in the ECRI WLI has been widely commented upon. I’ve recently run across two items, an article and an interview, that I think are very notable with regard to interpreting the WLI. The first is an article ( “Is ECRI Growth Rate Index Signaling A Double Dip?”) that discusses the predictive …

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Updates On Economic Indicators

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (pdf) updated as of May 24, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An …

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Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (pdf) (last updated 4/29/10) The Consumer Metrics Institute’s Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: an excerpt dated 4/29/10: “The April update of …

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Consumer Metrics Institute Charts

Pursuant to the last post, here are some charts from The Consumer Metrics Institute that I find noteworthy: As I indicated in the last post, I plan on including updated information from The Consumer Metrics Institute in my frequent updates of economic indicators… back to <home> SPX at 1170.51 as this post is written

The Consumer Metrics Institute

In the previous blog post I wrote of the issues and implications regarding the current economic growth rate. There are a variety of sources and methods one may use in trying to gauge current and future economic growth.  In this blog I frequently highlight and discuss many I feel are prominent and/or noteworthy.  However, I …

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Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm an excerpt dated 2/24: “The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized …

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“New Financial Conditions Index”

I ran across the following paper titled “Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis” (pdf) dated February 22, 2010. This paper discusses and explains this new attempt to create a “financial conditions index” that will accurately predict economic activity. From the abstract: “As of the end of 2009, our FCI showed financial …

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The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010.  As …

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Two Measures Of Economic Activity

Two measures of economic activity that I closely follow have been weak over the recent past months.  This is notable, as they did enjoy a significant “boost” over the mid-2009 timeframe. These two measures have proven to be excellent indicators in the past.  They would be considered “coincident” in nature. I view the weakness of …

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Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 131.5 for the week ended January 1.  From the story in the link below: “‘With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy …

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