America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 28, 2016 update (reflecting data through April 22) is -.924. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of April 6, 2016, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2016.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of April 28, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate at .5%, Worse Than Mainstream Forecasts” post of April 28, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 28, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through April 15) is -.862. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2016, updated on April 26, 2016. This value is $230,651 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 21, 2016: (current reading of -.44; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.18): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …