“New Financial Conditions Index”

I ran across the following paper titled “Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis” (pdf) dated February 22, 2010. This paper discusses and explains this new attempt to create a “financial conditions index” that will accurately predict economic activity. From the abstract: “As of the end of 2009, our FCI showed financial … Read more “New Financial Conditions Index”

The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010.  As … Read more The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Two Measures Of Economic Activity

Two measures of economic activity that I closely follow have been weak over the recent past months.  This is notable, as they did enjoy a significant “boost” over the mid-2009 timeframe. These two measures have proven to be excellent indicators in the past.  They would be considered “coincident” in nature. I view the weakness of … Read more Two Measures Of Economic Activity

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 131.5 for the week ended January 1.  From the story in the link below: “‘With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy … Read more Updates On Economic Indicators

Another Interesting New Index

I came across a new index that seems interesting. It is called the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator.  Details can be found here: http://solutions.dowjones.com/economicsentimentindicator/# The only comment I want to make on it at this time is that I find it of interest as it employs a different methodology.  I plan on monitoring this index. … Read more Another Interesting New Index