America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25. Here is Press Release: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/ Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October …
Here is an October 5 Wall Street Journal editorial reviewing the “Cash For Clunkers” stimulus plan: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703628304574453280766443704.html Also, to provide perspective, a chart of Vehicle Sales from the CalculatedRisk blog (10/1 post) at this link: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/light-vehicle-sales-92-million-saar-in.html As one can see, the “Cash for Clunkers” seems to have been successful in temporarily causing a surge in auto sales for July and …
Here is an October 1 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal titled “Stimulus Spending Doesn’t Work” : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574440723298786310.html Although I don’t concur with some of the statements in this Op-Ed, I do believe that its overall message and conclusions are important. SPX at 1054.72 as this post is written
From time to time, I will write posts that contain the Unemployment Rate or various other job loss measures. I show these statistics as they are widely used and quoted by others. From my perspective, however, the methodology used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics does not provide an accurate depiction. There are a variety …
I would like to present an interesting chart on job losses. My last chart concerning job losses was posted on September 10. The commentary I presented there is still highly applicable to the latest unemployment numbers. This chart is from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ from October 2. I like this chart as it presents a depiction of the relative severity …
On Tuesday The Wall Street Journal published an editorial on the FHA (Federal Housing Administration). I found it to be a good overview of the situation there. The editorial can be found at this link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574428970233151130.html I find this FHA situation highly disconcerting, especially in light of how similar situations have played out, and are playing out, …
Just a quick note. I think it is important to remember that there is a tremendous amount of what I refer to as “garbage” securities currently in existence. It is easy to forget this fact given that we don’t hear much about them anymore. This is due to many reasons, including: various credit spreads have been …
It is my belief that there will be many phenomenal investment opportunities arising in the near and intermediate future. Many more than during an average time period. However, I am also of the belief that they will be harder to “realize” for a variety of reasons. Of course, the main prerequisite is having sufficient funds available …
Here is a link to an interesting White Paper from Guy Haselmann of Gregoire Capital, dated August 2009: http://www.gregoirecapital.com/HF%20Outlook%208-09.pdf I found it interesting because it discusses a variety of very important concepts such as investment flexibility, market dislocations, inflation vs. deflation, diversification, hedge fund operating risk, etc. SPX at 1063.22 as this post is written
Here is a story from CNBC.com on September 23: “Buy-and-Hold Investing Makes A Return After Turbulent Year” http://www.cnbc.com/id/32970487 I am not a fan of the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, although I will concede that it worked (very) well, generally speaking, during the 20th Century. As far as the present and future is concerned, I wrote …