America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On November 3, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Steady at -13.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -13 in October. This is essentially the same as the -14 average for September. The index has declined since peaking at +3 in January 2015, and has remained below -10 …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
Doug Short had a blog post of October 30, 2015 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Down from October Preliminary“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of October 29, 2015. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate at 1.5%, A Big Decline from Q2’s 3.9%” post of October 29, 2015, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 29, 2015: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 22, 2015 update (reflecting data through October 16) is -.781. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …