America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 10, 2017: Year 2017 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $127.14/share …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2018 management call transcript (pdf) dated August 17, 2017. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q2 results and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 10, 2017 update (reflecting data through August 4, 2017) is -1.582. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
I have written extensively about U.S. interest rates and their importance. Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy. My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag. From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” category. …
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2017 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 11, 2017. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2017: 2.1% full-year 2018: 2.4% full-year 2019: …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The August 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 10, 2017. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in December.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 3, 2017 update (reflecting data through July 28, 2017) is -1.607. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …