America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The December 2017 Livingston Survey published on December 15, 2017 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2017 2644.8 Jun. 30, 2018 2739.8 Dec. 29, 2018 2805.0 Dec. 31, 2019 2980.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On Wednesday, December 13, 2017 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled December 2017 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …
The December 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 13, 2017. The headline is “U.S. Economic Expansion Could Become Longest on Record.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: Forecasters …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 7, 2017 update (reflecting data through December 1, 2017) is -1.575. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 12, 2017. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Hits Near All-Time High.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased in November by 3.7 points to 107.5. Here are some excerpts that I find particularly notable (but don’t …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) …
In the December 11, 2017 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “2018 Outlook: The Bull Market’s Next Act.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2018 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: Given synchronized global growth and …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …