America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (December 31, 2018) close, which had a closing value of 25.42. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
The Doug Short site had a post of December 27, 2018 (“Consumer Confidence Declined Again in December“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I …
In the July 2, 2010 post I explained my policy with regard to changing the content of posts after the day the posts have been published on the blog. While I change bad links and incorrect formatting without notification, I believe that changing blog posts’ content warrants disclosure. Over time I have made corrections to content on …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 24, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .22: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index …
The December 2018 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 21, 2018 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2018 2754.4 Jun. 28, 2019 2829.9 Dec. 31, 2019 2900.0 Dec. 31, 2020 3000.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. _____ …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November 2018, updated on December 21, 2018. This value is $250,827 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …