Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The December 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 24, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .22:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 24, 2018;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .12:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 24, 2018;
As of December 21, 2018 (incorporating data through December 14, 2018) the WLI was at 144.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.9%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of December 21, 2018:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 15, 2018:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the December 20, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly in November” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.8, the CEI was at 104.9, and the LAG was 106.0 in November.
An excerpt from the release:
“The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread. Solid GDP growth at about 2.8 percent should continue in early 2019, but the LEI suggests the economy is likely to moderate further in the second half of 2019.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of December 20, 2018:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2351.10 as this post is written