America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and stability for the foreseeable future. The consensus view is that the U.S. economy is (very) strong and the risk of recession remains low. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – …
The Doug Short site had a post of March 29, 2019 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: March Final Rebounded“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that …
In the last post (“4th Quarter 2018 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this …
Today’s (March 28, 2019) GDP release (Q4 2018,Third Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 1st Quarter of 2019. As seen in page 2 of the report, there were 158 survey respondents. As stated: “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 21, 2019 update (reflecting data through March 15, 2019) is -1.256. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 25, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.29: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed …
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on March 22, 2019. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2019: 2.4% full-year 2020: 2.0% …