Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The March 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 25, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.29:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 25, 2019;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.18:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 25, 2019;
As of March 22, 2019 (incorporating data through March 15, 2019) the WLI was at 145.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.3%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of March 23, 2019:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 16, 2019:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the March 21, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.5, the CEI was at 105.9, and the LAG was 107.0 in February.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI increased in February for the first time in five months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “February’s improvement was driven by accommodative financial conditions and a rebound in stock prices, which more than offset weaknesses in the labor market components. Despite the latest results, the US LEI’s growth rate has slowed over the past six months, suggesting that while the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, its pace of growth could decelerate by year end.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of March 21, 2019:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2798.27 as this post is written