America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 85 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through July 8, 2016) from Doug Short’s blog …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On Tuesday (July 5, 2016) the yield on the 10-Year Treasury closed at 1.367%, after reaching an intraday yield of 1.357%. An excerpt from the Wall Street Journal article of July 6, 2016, titled “Are Treasuries Headed for 1%? New Lows in a 35-Year Downtrend“: The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell …
On July 5, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Steady in June at -14.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -14 in June, the same reading as in April and May. Confidence ticked slightly higher earlier in the month — with the index averaging -12 each of …
On Wednesday (June 29, 2016) the yield on the 10-Year Treasury closed at 1.477%. As a reference, here is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis, LOG scale: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) Here is a …
Doug Short had a blog post of June 28, 2016 (“Consumer Confidence Rebounds in June“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of January 27, 2016 titled “U.S. Deflation – January 27, 2016 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May 2016, updated on June 24, 2016. This value is $230,701 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …