America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2016, updated on October 27, 2016. This value is $227,278 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through October 21, 2016) from Doug Short’s blog …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 21, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Throughout this site there are many charts of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of these various indicators are especially notable. While many are still indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of economic weakness. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict greater degrees of weakness and/or other worrisome trends, …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 88 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On October 4, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Changed Little in September.” Notable excerpts include: The modest improvement in Americans’ economic confidence first evident after the Democratic National Convention continued for a second consecutive month. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -10 for the month of September, in line with …
Doug Short had a blog post of September 30, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment : September Final Up Slightly“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August 2016, updated on September 28, 2016. This value is $226,937 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …