America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of October 27, 2017. As one can see, two of the three measures are very near …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.0%” post of October 27, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 27, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2017, updated on October 25, 2017. This value is $238,695 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 100 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 5, 2017, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
On October 3, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “Confidence in U.S. Economy Dips to +4 in September.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ confidence in the economy declined slightly in September, with Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index slipping to +4 from August’s reading of +6. also: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of weak growth or economic contraction. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict …