America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 22 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 44 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These charts raise …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 4Q 2012“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2012:Q4). The last value (as of March 7, 2013) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of March 7, 2013 titled “Fed’s Q4 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1.2 Trillion from Peak.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 4Q 2012 report: (click on chart to enlarge image) …
On March 5, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Falls as Sequester Becomes Reality.” The subtitle is “Prior to sequester, confidence held at the monthly five-year high.” An excerpt regarding the monthly average reading for February: Although Americans’ confidence in the economy fell last week, monthly U.S. Economic Confidence held steady at -13 …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through January, last updated on February 27. This value is 216,981 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2013 earnings call transcript (pdf) dated January 21, 2013. I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly conference call comments; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 21 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …