America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Yesterday William C. Dudley, President and CEO of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, gave a speech titled “Asset Bubbles and the Implications for Central Bank Policy.” Although there are many parts of this speech with which I disagree, I found this speech noteworthy and interesting. I could make exhaustive comments about many parts …
As seen on the following 10-year daily chart, the 10-Year Treasury Yield has been rising as of late: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com There is very little general expectation for a significant rise in interest rates. In fact, the average economist forecast (as seen for the March 2010 Wall Street Journal Economist Survey) for the 10-Year …
Recent statistics indicate that the stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP appears to again be over 100%. This is an elevated level from a historical perspective. I’ve written of this metric before in an article titled “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” I feel that for many reasons this is an important …
On January 13 I wrote the following blog post concerning the overall situation of the US Dollar: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2010/01/13/the-us-dollar-a-few-comments/ In that post, I wrote that there appeared to be few if any signs that a severe US Dollar decline was impending. However, the situation has changed. When viewed from a technical analysis perspective, US Dollar seems …
The climb in the S&P500 has been notable over the last few sessions. According to SentimenTrader.com, through yesterday, “Yet another up day pushed the S&P 500 futures to its 10th straight gain, only the second time since their inception (01/15/87 was the other).” Here is a chart of the S&P500 price action of the last …
On January 25 Fortune had an article on asset bubbles titled “Beware the 4 new asset bubbles.” The four purported bubbles mentioned in the article are Gold, oil, the stock market, and Treasuries. I have discussed each of these markets, with the exception of oil, in previous posts. I found the logic and discussion in …
I have been intermittently commenting upon the growing number of investment frauds being uncovered. Those posts can be found under the “investment frauds” tag. Here is yet another alleged Ponzi scheme as seen in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal article titled “SEC Charges Couple in Florida Ponzi Scheme.” As seen in the article, this alleged scheme …
Over the last few years, there has been an inverse correlation between price movements of the US Dollar and many asset classes. This inverse correlation appears to be strengthening over time. This inverse correlation can be seen in the chart below. For the sake of simplicity, I am only comparing the USD to the S&P500 …
I have made various comments about Gold over the last few months. One aspect during Gold’s price increase that I have noted as disconcerting is the relative lagging performance of the Gold stocks. I use the HUI index as a proxy for Gold stocks. As one can see on the daily chart below, the Gold …
I find a periodic review of Gold’s price relative to the Dow Jones Industrials’ and to Crude Oil’s interesting. Below is a long-term monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average price relative to that of Gold’s. As one can see, Gold has been outperforming since roughly 2001, after underperforming from roughly 1981-2000: chart courtesy …