America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Today’s Barron’s has a cover story titled “Outlook 2011.” Among the average forecasts of the 10 respondents (strategists and investment managers) was the following: A year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1373.25 $92.90 S&P500 EPS for 2011 $100.83 S&P500 EPS for 2012 (an average from 6 respondents) 3.2% GDP growth for 2011 In a separate story …
The December 9, 2010 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2010 1200 June 30, 2011 1250 Dec. 30, 2011 1298.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1350 These figures represent the median value across the 33 forecasters on the …
On November 6 Doug Short posted an interesting chart on his site. This chart shows the post-peak performances, in percentage terms, of four bear markets, as shown. As one can see, the current trajectory of the S&P500 (post-2007 peak) is quite distinct from that of the post-2000 Nasdaq, post-1989 Nikkei, and post-1929 Dow Jones Industrials: …
For the last few quarters, I have been commenting upon revenue growth in corporate results. I have focused on a variety of diversified manufacturers and distributors, all of them well-respected S&P500 firms. Prior posts on this issue are found at this link. For the recently released 3Q 2010 financial results, there generally has been …
Barron’s came out with its “Fall 2010 Big Money Poll” on November 1. There are a variety of statistics and poll results in it that I found interesting. Of special note is the S&P500 2011 profit consensus of respondents, at $91.11. There seems to be a growing overall consensus that S&P500 Operating Earnings will be …
The following commentary and chart is excerpted from the October 14, 2010 ContraryInvestor.com commentary. I find it interesting in a variety of different ways, and it raises a lot of questions with regard to the stock market, consumer confidence, QE1, and QE2… _____ “We have not touched on consumer confidence for a good while, but …
(this is the fifth in a series of five posts concerning the markets) Lastly, a couple of charts showing the S&P500… First, one that shows the S&P500 on a weekly basis, LOG scale, since 2007. I continue to find this chart interesting for a variety of reasons. It shows that resistance has become support, as …
(this is the fourth in a series of five posts concerning the markets) Starting with my June 2 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in the post of October …
(this is the third in a series of five posts concerning the markets) The bond market is believed by many to be an asset bubble. I agree with this assessment, and have written a few posts on the subject. I discussed when it may “burst” and other considerations in an October 4 post. The chart …
(this is the second in a series of five posts concerning the markets) I would like to start by featuring a couple of long-term charts of the U.S. Dollar. U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken …