America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Since the S&P500 highs of early May and early July I have written a variety of posts warning of what I considered cautionary signs for the stock market. One of those posts was on August 29, titled “The Near Term Direction Of The Stock Market.” In that post I commented: Was that August 9 low …
In my August 25 post (“Gold And Deflationary Pressures“) I spoke of the correction in Gold and its broader economic implications. At that time Gold was at $1726/oz (December futures.) Now, the December Gold futures are at $1645.1/oz. If one views Gold’s ascent from early 2009, one can see a rising trendline – one that …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – It …
Yesterday (September 19) The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Wall Street’s Optimism Fades.” The article contains a variety of forecasts and commentary regarding the stock market and earnings. Here are two excerpts of forecasts: Goldman Sachs last Wednesday ratcheted down its end-of-year prediction for the S&P 500 to 1250, from its previous forecast …
In at least two past posts on short-term Treasury yields, those of July 20, 2010 (“2-Year Treasury: Odd Occurrences”) and November 23, 2009 (“Two Notable Developments”) I have discussed the significance of the ultra-low yields seen on the 2-Year Treasury Note and the 3-Month Bill. Here are updated charts of each, as of Friday’s close. …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (as of September 2), their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $98.58/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of …
In the September 5 edition of Barron’s, the cover story was titled “Which Way Up?” Included in the story, 15 “buy- and sell-side strategists” give various forecasts including 2011 and 2012 S&P500 EPS, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 23, “The average of their expectations” for the …
There seems to be consensus that the stock market, as represented by the S&P500, “bottomed” during its August 9th low at 1101.54. Here is the daily 1-year chart of the S&P500 for reference: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – Was that August 9 low a “true bottom” – i.e. one that …
In my April 27 post (“Reasons Behind Gold’s Ascent“) I outlined a variety of factors that I believed were driving Gold’s advance. Point #4 on the list was “…an expectation of high future inflation.” It should be also noted that the inverse of this condition – an expectation of deflation – can serve to depress …