America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On September 12, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this September 12, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q3 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals Continued U.S. Slowdown“: Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 8, 2022 update (reflecting data through September 2, 2022) is -1.5900: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through August 2022. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 25, 2022 update (reflecting data through August 19, 2022) is -1.9360: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 22, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .27: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 12, 2022. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2022: 1.6% full-year 2023: 1.3% full-year 2024: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 11, 2022 update (reflecting data through August 5, 2022) is -2.1880: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …