America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 23, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.19: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On March 15, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2023. Notable excerpts from this March 15, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index Ticks Up Slightly…“: Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2023 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 16, 2023 update (reflecting data through March 10, 2023) is -.2879: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 2, 2023 update (reflecting data through February 24, 2023) is -.2324: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through February 2023. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 23, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .23: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 16, 2023 update (reflecting data through February 10, 2023) is -.7704: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 10, 2023. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2023: 1.3% full-year 2024: 1.4% full-year 2025: …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …