America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 22, 2023 update (reflecting data through June 16, 2023) is -.5672: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 22, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On June 7, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2023. Notable excerpts from this June 7, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Dips Slightly…“: The overall Index dipped a modest three points from last quarter to 76, remaining below its …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 8, 2023 update (reflecting data through June 2, 2023) is -.3689: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through May 2023. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 25, 2023 update (reflecting data through May 19, 2023) is -.4794: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 25, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .07: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 12, 2023. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2023: 1.3% full-year 2024: 1.0% full-year 2025: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 11, 2023 update (reflecting data through May 5, 2023) is -.3460: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …